Let’s get straight to the point: Black Friday remains one of the biggest sales opportunities and the brands that adapt fastest will win. This isn’t just about discounts. It’s about precision, agility and partner-led growth.
Below are ten of our predictions of what to look out for in the build-up to this peak trading period.
- Fewer “browsers,” more buyers (because of AI-driven search)
AI tools like ChatGPT, Gemini and regionally tailored models are already reshaping how shoppers research products.
In markets like Australia, Singapore and Indonesia, users are increasingly turning to AI chat assistants when asking “best TV under $1,000” or “PlayStation deals.”
What this means
Expect lower overall traffic to retail sites, but a higher conversion rate from what remains.
You’ll want to capture high intent early prepare to optimise for keyword queries that are transactional, not exploratory.
Work with content and affiliate partners who can craft answers that feed directly into AI responses.
- Google Shopping strategy will matter more than ever
In many APAC markets, Amazon PPC isn’t dominant (yet). That gives local retailers an edge in Google Shopping and feed-based shopping ads especially if they work with strong CSS (comparison shopping service) partners.
Tip
Use a CSS or Shopping Feed partner in each market (Australia, Malaysia, Philippines, etc.) to maximise visibility and reduce CPCs.
Test flexible bidding strategies early (mid-Q4) so you’re not scrambling during peak.
- Stronger attribution via server-side and hybrid models
Brands in this region are still catching up on tracking and attribution tech. But this is the year to get ahead.
As traditional cookies weaken and privacy legislation strengthens (think Australia’s soon-coming digital privacy reforms, or Singapore’s PDPA evolutions), having server-side tracking or hybrid models in place will be critical.
Action step
Ensure your affiliate platform supports server-to-server (S2S) or API-based conversion tracking.
Audit your mobile apps (if you have them) and set up app-to-web attribution.
Consider probabilistic matching where deterministic isn’t possible.
- Influence of social & creators will sharpen
Creator marketing is already massive. But with better attribution (see point 3), brands will start to see exactly how creators drive sales even when the click happens days later.
In markets like Indonesia, Thailand and India, creators already drive a lot of discovery. Expect more direct deals, CPA-based partnerships, and tighter tracking to shift investment from pure awareness to ROI-focused creator campaigns.
- Currency, tariffs & supply chains complicate pricing
In this region countries are import-dependent. Changes in global tariffs, shipping delays or currency shifts can eat into margins fast.
What to watch
Plan buffer margins for Black Friday. Don’t assume you can hit 50% off everywhere.
Work with affiliates transparently: explain constraints so they don’t overpromise deals.
In some markets (e.g. Vietnam, Philippines), localised promos (bundles, value-adds) might outperform deep discounting.
- Conversion rate optimisation (CRO) & retargeting tools remain essential
Brands that invest in CRO tools, A/B testing, cart-recovery tech and retargeting will outperform. Mobile shopping dominates so partner tools that fix abandonment issues on mobile will have high ROI.
Example
Think about pop-ups, exit-intent offers, countdown timers that localise to user’s market.
Use dynamic retargeting with local currency, local language, relevant product configurations.
- Content + brand partnerships = AI visibility
Search results from AI often pull from high-quality content sources (reviews, buying guides). Brands that already partner with content publishers, review sites or niche blogs are well positioned to get picked up in AI-answers.
Local language matters. A Japanese or Indonesian content partner may help you dominate local AI responses.
Strategy
Work with affiliates or media in each market to produce localised guides, reviews or gift lists.
Feed structured data (product specs, prices, availability) to those partners so AI can pull in correct info.
- Smart campaign tools to be your safety net
Economic uncertainty means brands will demand their media dollars “do the work.” Expect to lean harder on automation, smarter bidding, dynamic commission structures or incentive-based commission tiers.
Digital maturity can vary from one region to another; therefore, we recommend these tools to act as performance guardrails.
What to test
Tiered commission models (higher for top-performing affiliates)
Time-sensitive boosts (e.g. “+20% commission tomorrow only”)
Performance-based bonuses or contests for affiliates
- Longer decision windows across the region
Cross-border shopping, shipping time uncertainty and tax/duty questions often make shoppers pause. It’s common for consumers to research for days or weeks, especially for big-ticket items.
Recommendation
Adjust attribution windows (7, 14, even 30 days) depending on your product and region.
Don’t pull budget too early conversions may still come after the main Black Friday peak day.
- SME & niche brands will lean harder into micro-influencers
Large retailers will get the lion’s share of attention. To rise above, smaller or niche brands will partner with micro-creators, local bloggers or community voices especially in markets like Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia
Because these creators have tight local audiences and lower rates, they offer high ROI if you pay per result (CPA, commission-based) rather than upfront.
Tip
Provide creatives, product samples, clear briefs make it easy for them to convert.
Use deep discount codes, trackable links, or promo codes unique to creators.
Final Word
If you nail these fundamentals advanced tracking, smart partnerships, localised content and adaptive promos you’ll be primed to outperform. The shifts in AI, privacy and consumer behaviour are real, and APAC will feel them first.
The opportunity? Performance-based partnerships (affiliate, creators, media) give you flexibility, measurable ROI and resilience. That’s exactly the playbook brands should lean on this Black Friday.
Commission Factory is not only the Asia-Pacific region's largest affiliate platform, working with more than 900 of the world's biggest brands, it is also a performance marketing platform that allows affiliates, partners and content creators to earn money and online businesses to increase sales.
Connect with the Commission Factory team to learn more about how we help brands and partners build and grow their affiliate marketing strategies.